bayes for days

docs(melee): the arms, the floor, and the prediction that was wrong

A berserker lance under advance throws 10.50 physicals a match against 6.71 under engage - paired difference +3.79, 95% CI [+1.67, +5.83], 18 pairs up of 24. The floor is the control arm run a second time: +0.17, CI [-1.17, +1.29]. The intervals do not overlap. The prediction that advance would lengthen matches was wrong in the other direction: 7.4 rounds against 11.5, because closing ends a fight rather than extending it. Per round the rate more than doubles.


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+122
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+122
1 changed file